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The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has estimated that the economy will rise in the current fiscal year 2078-079 due to the recovery in the economy and an increase in net consumption. According to a report released by the department on Thursday, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the current fiscal year is projected to be 5.49 percent in basic prices and 5.84 percent in consumer prices. The CBS estimates the figures are based on data and information related to economic sectors for 6 to 9 months.
According to the department, Nepal's GDP will remain at Rs 4.1 trillion at basic prices. The department has projected an increase of 3.9 percent in the primary sector including agriculture and 6.9 percent in the non-agricultural sector.
The department has also revised the data released earlier and stated that the economic growth rate was negative at 2.42 percent in the fiscal year 2076-07.
Earlier, the CBS had estimated that it would remain negative at 2.12 percent. Similarly, the economic growth has been estimated to be 3.83 percent in the last fiscal year 2077-078.
The World Bank had earlier projected 3.7 percent growth in the current fiscal year, while the Asian Development Bank had projected 3.9 percent growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected 4.1 percent economic growth. However, the government had set a target of 7 percent economic growth in the current fiscal year.
At the same time, the preliminary data of the department has shown that Nepal's GDP will remain at Rs 48.51 trillion in consumer prices.
According to CBS, the contribution of service sector to the total GDP is expected to be high in the current fiscal year. The service sector is estimated to have contributed 61.8 percent to the GDP in the current fiscal year.
The primary sector, namely agriculture, forest and fisheries, and mining and quarrying, is estimated to contribute 24.5 percent, while the secondary sector, industry, electricity and gas, water supply, and construction, is estimated to contribute 13.7 percent.
Electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioned supply services also contributed 36.67 percent to these sectors. Last year, the sector's contribution was only 2.57 percent. The rise in gas and vapors, including CBS's power generation, has contributed to GDP. The contribution of electricity has also increased as the production of Upper Tamakoshi has started so far this year.
The contribution of the agriculture sector, which contributes the most to Nepal's economy, has declined. The Department of Agriculture has projected that the contribution of the agriculture sector to the GDP will be only 24.5 percent in the fiscal year 2078-079. Compared to the previous year, the total value added (GVA) rate of the agricultural sector has declined by 0.51 percent in the current fiscal year, according to the department.
Although the figures are based on a seven- to eight-month report for the current fiscal year, economists say that given the current state of the economy, economic growth could be around 4 percent. At present, the government has controlled imports to ease the pressure on foreign exchange reserves as investment has been affected due to a liquidity crisis in the banking sector. That also affects production. Due to this there may not be economic growth at that level.
Stating that the economic growth is estimated to be very high in some areas, he said that the current crisis in the economy and the problems faced by the private sector will be affected.
Nepal's per capita income has reached 1,372 US dollars. In the last fiscal year 2077-078, the per capita income was 1 thousand 239 US dollars. Similarly, in the fiscal year 2076-077, the per capita income was 1 thousand 156 US dollars.
